Fidelity Isn’t Calling a Bottom yet Despite Bitcoin Price Rally

A Rally Without a Verdict

In its fourth-quarter crypto outlook published this week, Fidelity wrote that “despite the recent push higher in price, there is no guarantee the bear market is over.” The note said bitcoin posted its largest green month since November 2024 in August, with the coin climbing more than 25% in a single late-August week while ether rose 34.1% and solana added 28%. Chris Kuiper, vice president of research at Fidelity Digital Assets, laid out both scenarios, stating:

Given bitcoin’s recent performance, the bottom could already have occurred in July. It could also drop again to make another new low in November or later.

The November reference stems from bitcoin’s tendency to form bear-market troughs at roughly four-year intervals. The last cycle low arrived in November 2022, which would place the next one around November 2026 if the pattern repeats. Fidelity cautioned that “this cycle isn’t guaranteed to repeat,” and Kuiper noted that past cycles have not been precisely four years long, which makes them unreliable for timing the market.

Bitcoin is changing hands near $81,000 today after briefly touching $82,000 late Thursday. That leaves the coin roughly 30% above the sub-$65,000 range it occupied through June and July, though still far below the October record of $126,080.

Flows are cooperating for now. U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded $731 million of net inflows on Sept. 3, led by Blackrock’s IBIT at $454 million. Ether ETFs added a further $141 million the same day.

What Fidelity Is Watching

The outlook identifies several catalysts beyond price. Stablecoin transaction volume now runs at 2.3 times that of Visa, and the real-world asset (RWA) tokenization market has grown faster in 2026 than in any prior year, Fidelity said. On policy, the note points to the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act awaiting Senate action and a new crypto framework proposed by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Kuiper singled out the September Senate vote, saying the bill could provide “greater regulatory certainty and support continued innovation in the U.S. digital asset ecosystem.” That vote is now a cloture motion scheduled for Sept. 15, and Polymarket traders were pricing 2026 passage at just 13% at the end of August.

Fidelity analysts also flagged a volatility pattern, stating that bitcoin spent June through August in a low-volatility range before the sharp late-August expansion, a sequence the firm said has historically coincided with the end of bear markets. Network fundamentals held up through the price weakness, it added.

Lastly, Galaxy Research argued last month that only a weekly close above the 50-week moving average, then sitting near $82,470, would confirm the June 30 low as the bottom. This week’s push to $82,000 brushed that line without securing a weekly close above it.

In any case, bears have a November date circled and a research chief who declines to rule out a lower low.